Retail report: holiday stress or success

With Christmas just days away, consumers must be flooding malls and stores nation-wide to fill the underneath of their trees. But, the media reports lackluster sales and empty parking lots, which I recall hearing for the last, oh, ten years! Are the large retailers struggling? Or is this a strategic media ploy to motivate shoppers to start buying to aid the economy? Lets take a look in this month’s retail report.

Lets start with the large, upscale department store, Nordstrom. I can’t remember a December where I didn’t have to fight for a parking spot or park across the street from it at a business park. Nordstrom offers clothing, jewelry, fragrance, and food, which all should be in high demand this time of year. Has the recession taken a bite out of their sales or stock price as the Nordstrom stock news would have you believe? Doesn’t appear to have, not when you look at 2009 Q4 sales and corollary stock price for Nordstrom, Inc. Total sales for Nordstrom, Inc. rose 5.9 percent to $749 million for the four-week early Christmas/Black Friday period ending November 30, 2009 from $707 million a year ago. Its stock price has also increased from $33.45 on Nov. 30 to Dec. 14th price of $35.95.

Now lets look at Target stock news. Another retail establishment busting at the seams with potential flu carriers…I mean, consumers. Target has a more broad selling focus, offering clothing, electronics, toys, household, office supplies, and groceries. If their checkout lines are any indication, Target will also dispel the media’s claims of a “ghost town” shopping season. Target’s stock price rose from $46.56 to $47.66 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 14. Its net retail sales for the early Christmas/Black Friday period from Nov. 1-28, 2009 were $5,689 million, an increase of 1.5 percent from $5,605 million for the same period in 2008.

Before we take a look at our last outlet in this retail report, there is another issue that I want to discuss. If we’re in a ression then how is there a “holiday hot toy”! It’s almost impossible to find a Zhu Zhu Pet at the store. From Nov. 1-30, over 206,000 Zhu Zhu Pets transactions have taken place on ebay. Shouldn’t parents be buying bread and socks for their kids insted of motorized hamsters? The market is a contradiction. Its not just pockets of retail success. Look at this eBay chart indicacating where Zhu Zhu Pets have been sold. It looks like a nation-wide outbreak of (spending, that is) rather than a recession.

Venture into the online shopping arena with the recent powerhouse Amazon.com news and you will see no other cyber-retailer compares with Amazon. They offer books, electronics, home & garden, tools, grocery, digital downloads, you name it. Have the attractive prices and ease of shopping from your office chair or couch enticed consumers in this economy? From the same range as the other retailers, Nov. 30 to Dec. 14, Amazon’s stock price (AMZN)  has dipped from $135.91 to $131.38. Interesting. However, if you move back the starting date to Oct. 22, which could mark the time people embarked on their early Christmas shopping, the price was $93.45. Four days later it shot up to $124.64 and has stabilized in the $120-$144 range since. Into Q4, Revenue was up 28% from last year to $5.45 billion. Amazon.com Consumer Electronics VP Paul Ryder reported that sales are up in December and have been getting busier and busier as Christmas grows closer. So, it looks like Amazon is beating the slow consumer spending rap as well.

So, don’t believe what you hear on the news. Based on this retail report of three of the retail leaders in their segments, there is no consumer spending crisis. Spending this Christmas season has not only matched last year’s numbers, it has eclipsed them. Stocks are up, revenue is up, and no-one can find Zhu Zhu Pets. Good luck, shop well, and have a great Christmas.